The Coming Wave of Crap
Mike Lee's ejection from Tapulous seems to have sparked a massive outcry against iPhone VCs. Talk abounds of a new technology bubble, caused by a set of VC firms which apparently slept through the first bubble. And damn it, they want their chance to mess up an industry, too! But unlike the dot-com burst, this bubble's eventual burst will have a much more localized impact. And that's bad news for us.
When the dot-com boom went bust, it first and foremost affected those directly involved in the (former) industry. Yes, there were economic impacts, but the biggest impact was on former employees of the affected companies -- the loss of Pets.com didn't affect the average consumer in any significant way. Conversely, when this new bubble created by the iPhone pops, it's going to be us, the consumers, who feel it most. Surprisingly, I'm not talking about iPhone owners; I'm talking about Mac owners.
New Recruits
The iPhone has drawn a ridiculous number of people to the Cocoa frameworks -- some of their own desire, and some at the charge of their employer, eager to cash in on the Next Big Thing. Some of these new recruits have done a phenomenal job -- they've truly gone the extra mile to make sure they understand what they're doing. However, as evidenced by the quality of a huge percentage of apps on the App Store, it's clear that a lot of people simply don't understand the platform and have no intention of learning. Regardless of their attention to detail, all of these people have invested a huge amount of time learning the ins-and-outs of Objective-C and the Cocoa frameworks. So what are they going to do when the bubble bursts and iPhone apps stop being the quick path to the good life? Many will start developing for the Mac.
These converts will fall into two categories: First, the people who have "seen the light" of Cocoa and want to continue using it in some form. This group will probably be comprised of the same people who took the extra time and effort to learn what's expected of an iPhone app. This group is absolutely desirable, and I hope that, even if the bubble somehow continues, people who fall into this group will consider giving Mac programming a try.
The Eventual Decline
It's the other group that worries me. This group, rather than "making the jump" due to a love of Cocoa, will see it more as cutting their losses. After all, they invested all this time into learning Objective-C, and supposedly there's money in the computer-thingies too! They might as well get something out of it! These will be the developers who didn't bother to learn what's expected of an iPhone app, content to push out garbage. And they'll bring that same apathy to Mac programming.
"So what? If you don't like it, you don't have to buy it," you say. Well, yes, that's a good point. In fact, without the App Store acting as a funnel for all applications, it will be even easier to ignore the garbage. But, no matter how easy they are to ignore, they will cheapen the platform. One of the big counterpoints to Windows having far more applications available is that the Mac has a smaller collection of apps, but they tend to be of much greater quality; saw what you will about the quality of Windows itself, but the strength of a platform is equally reliant on its 3rd-party developers as it is on itself. Where will the Mac be in 5 years once its been flooded with a stream of crappy applications? I'm not sure I want to find out.
2 Comments
I just had to say that I like the comment layout and you bring up an excellent point.
August 28, 2008 @ 05:46 PM
Yes, some excellent points. And a good article.
And yes, the third party is really the life's blood of the Macintosh! Think of all the incredible ideas that have appeared, and filtered into the Mac OS itself, over the years.
Historically, poorly design applications have never sold well on the Mac. The community is tight and word gets around. Crappy software tends to die and go away. Hopefully the trend will continue on the iPhone/touch platform, too!
Not so in the Windows world where, because of the huge user base, the worst POS app could sell a tiny percentage, but still do relatively well. This can delude the programmer into thinking that their work is good. or maybe, even worse, they simply don't care. It's a lowest common denominator world over there. I shudder at the thought of that kind of attitude polluting the Mac world.
What worries me, and extends your point, is that given the relatively huge boost in Mac market share and new Mac users, the highly discerning and discriminating Mac gene pool is getting watered down to the point where these lazy and lousy programmers that you speak about may actually get some traction and gain footholds in the Mac universe.
After all, many of these Windows converts (they WERE using Windows after all) won't know the difference (right away) between a fantastic Mac app and some WinDOS POS.
September 1, 2008 @ 08:17 AM